The FII Conference brought the world’s movers and shakers together – the architects of the future – to discuss the future of capital, AI, and its opportunities and risks. From world leaders, prime ministers, ministers, and royals, to the capital leaders, CEOs of the top Fortune 50 companies, thought leaders, and AI builders, this was a Davos-level event with unparalleled access to sit one-on-one with these heavy hitters.
As expected, AI was the centerpiece of every conversation, with leaders pitching their countries, companies, and products, and showcasing how AI has already delivered game-changing use cases, as well as the inevitable opportunities and concerns.
Marcelo Claure, an optimist, talked about AI adding $10 trillion by reducing costs, improving customer service, and boosting marketing. Accenture CEO Julie Sweet shared practical stories and emphasized that talent is the key to unlocking that $10 trillion opportunity – talent is the bottleneck, and we’ll succeed when we invest in our people.
Perhaps the most thought-provoking perspective came from Ben Horowitz. He pointed out that the progress from GPT-2 to GPT-3.5 was enormous, but the gains from 3.5 to 4 were smaller, even though vastly more money was spent. This suggests we’re reaching a plateau in language model development. Horowitz argued we need to rethink the underlying architecture, as Kai-Fu Lee has done, to create more efficient and cost-effective models.
Dan Shulman also struck an ominous note, forecasting 15-20% unemployment due to AI disrupting 80% of customer service, 50% of legal work, all basic software programming, and 50% of analyst jobs. This means less tax revenue and fewer services for the rest of society.
It’s clear that AI will bring shockwaves of volatility and tectonic shifts to society, culminating in AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). The consensus is that AGI will cost $10 trillion to develop but then generate $10 trillion per year – hugely exciting for global capitalists like Masayoshi San.
Eric Schmidt and most believe we’ll have AGI by the end of the decade. It’s not a matter of if, but when. And as Horowitz highlighted, the path to teaching AGI is getting closer, portending employment disruption far beyond the 20% forecasted. This is the final, fundamental shift.
While the rest of the world is busy innovating, Miami seems preoccupied with “innovation” parties, all hype and little substance. Our leaders and “tech ecosystem” are just riding the waves, like they did with crypto, destining us to be losers in the AI revolution.
Miami must rethink its strategy and stop the partying. We need to fundamentally embrace AI in our ecosystem, moving beyond talk to concrete action. The future is being shaped now, and Miami has a chance to play a role. The Art of the Possible is being rewritten by AI – where do you want Miami to stand?
Thanks to the FII Institute for inviting me to Riyadh.
